https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&feed=atom&action=history
Scenario Planning - Revision history
2024-03-28T20:53:22Z
Revision history for this page on the wiki
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https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=8017&oldid=prev
HannahM at 12:06, 18 March 2024
2024-03-18T12:06:27Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 12:06, 18 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">ConceptVisualisationScenarioPlanning</del>.png|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">450px</del>|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">frameless|left</del>|[[<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Sustainability </del>Methods<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:About</del>|Method <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">categorization</del>]] <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">for [[Scenario Planning]]]]</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Quan qual dedu syst glob futu</ins>.png|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">thumb</ins>|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">right</ins>|[[<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Design Criteria of </ins>Methods|Method <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Categorisation:</ins>]]<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Quantitative''' <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">- </ins>'''Qualitative'''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">/</del>></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Deductive''' - <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Inductive<br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{|class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; width: 50%"</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Individual <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">- </ins>'''System''' <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">- </ins>'''Global'''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">! colspan = 3 | Method categorization</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Past </ins>- Present <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">- </ins>'''Future'''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|-</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:</del>Quantitative<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Quantitative]]</del>''' <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|| colspan="2" | </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:</del>Qualitative<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Qualitative]]</del>'''</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| [[:Category:Inductive|Inductive]] || colspan="2"| </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:Deductive|</del>Deductive<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</del>'''</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|</del>-</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| style="width: 33%"| [[:Category:</del>Individual<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Individual]] || style="width: 33%"| </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:</del>System<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|System]]</del>''' <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|| </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:Global|</del>Global<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</del>'''</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|</del>-</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| style="width: 33%"| [[:Category:Past|Past]] || style="width: 33%"| [[:Category:</del>Present<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Present]] || </del>'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[:Category:</del>Future<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|Future]]</del>'''</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br/>__NOTOC__</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br/><br/></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''In short:''' Scenario Planning is a systematic designation of potential futures to enable long term strategic planning.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''In short:''' Scenario Planning is a systematic designation of potential futures to enable long term strategic planning.</div></td></tr>
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HannahM
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6136&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz at 13:26, 28 July 2021
2021-07-28T13:26:44Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:26, 28 July 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Strenghts </del>& Challenges ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Strengths </ins>& Challenges ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Scenario Planning allows for any organization that deploys it to be more innovative, flexible and thus better prepared for unforeseen disruptions and changes. In a corporate context, this can reduce costs, provide market benefits and improve internal communication (3, 5).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Scenario Planning allows for any organization that deploys it to be more innovative, flexible and thus better prepared for unforeseen disruptions and changes. In a corporate context, this can reduce costs, provide market benefits and improve internal communication (3, 5).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Scenario Planning broadens the structural perspective of an actor to think about the future (5). For example, an oil company may well be able to assess risks in their technical processes of oil exploration and extraction, but only through a more detailed scenario analysis they may be enabled to include economic, political and societal trends into their planning (2).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Scenario Planning broadens the structural perspective of an actor to think about the future (5). For example, an oil company may well be able to assess risks in their technical processes of oil exploration and extraction, but only through a more detailed scenario analysis they may be enabled to include economic, political and societal trends into their planning (2).</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning They Believed It.png|450px|thumb|right|'''Throughout history, smart minds have underestimated technological, economic and political developments.''' Scenario Planning can be a mean of addressing the overconfidence in thinking that things will not change. Source: Schoemaker 1995, p.26]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning They Believed It.png|450px|thumb|right|'''Throughout history, smart minds have underestimated technological, economic and political developments.''' Scenario Planning can be a mean of addressing the overconfidence in thinking that things will not change. Source: Schoemaker 1995, p.26]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Normativity ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Normativity ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Overall, the results of the scenario planning process and the analysis of the scenarios shows how this method can help identify the most important impact factors on future developments of a system and how distinct potential developments influence specific aspects of the system. It also becomes clear how this method can facilitate policy responses and how scenarios are a helpful form of communicating scientific data.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Overall, the results of the scenario planning process and the analysis of the scenarios shows how this method can help identify the most important impact factors on future developments of a system and how distinct potential developments influence specific aspects of the system. It also becomes clear how this method can facilitate policy responses and how scenarios are a helpful form of communicating scientific data.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>(7) Hanspach et al. 2014. ''A holistic approach to studying social-ecological systems and its application to Southern Transylvania.'' Ecology and Society 19(4). 32-45.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>(7) Hanspach et al. 2014. ''A holistic approach to studying social-ecological systems and its application to Southern Transylvania.'' Ecology and Society 19(4). 32-45.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">== Further Information ==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* Shell works with Scenarios still today. [[On this websitehttps://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html#vanity-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2hlbGwuY29tL3NjZW5hcmlvcy5odG1s|On this website]], you find a lot of information about their scenario approach.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>----</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>----</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:Qualitative]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:Qualitative]]</div></td></tr>
</table>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6135&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* References */
2021-07-28T13:18:31Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">References</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:18, 28 July 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>(6) Wiek et al. 2006. ''Functions of scenarios in transition processes.'' Futures 38(7). 740-766.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>(6) Wiek et al. 2006. ''Functions of scenarios in transition processes.'' Futures 38(7). 740-766.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(7) Hanspach et al. 2014. ''A holistic approach to studying social-ecological systems and its application to Southern Transylvania.'' Ecology and Society 19(4). 32-45.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>----</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>----</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:Qualitative]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:Qualitative]]</div></td></tr>
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</table>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6134&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* An exemplary study */
2021-07-28T13:17:22Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">An exemplary study</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:17, 28 July 2021</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l83" >Line 83:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|300px|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|300px|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">stakeholder </del>workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. This way</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">they gathered </del>a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">resulting in '''scenario maps,''' which provide </ins>a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''Scenario maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend (three out of eight are shown) develop under one of the four scenarios. Red = likely, blue = unlikely. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''Scenario maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend (three out of eight are shown) develop under one of the four scenarios. Red = likely, blue = unlikely. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, visual representations of the four scenarios were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">'''</ins>visual representations <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(drawings) </ins>of the four scenarios<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''' </ins>were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Drawings.png|750px|thumb|center|'''These drawing visualize Southern Transylvania under each of the four developed scenarios.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Drawings.png|750px|thumb|center|'''These drawing visualize Southern Transylvania under each of the four developed scenarios.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td></tr>
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</table>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6133&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* An exemplary study */
2021-07-28T13:16:03Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">An exemplary study</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:16, 28 July 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== An exemplary study ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== An exemplary study ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">400px</del>|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">300px</ins>|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Some of the scenario </del>maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">would </del>develop under one of the four scenarios. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Scenario </ins>maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(three out of eight are shown) </ins>develop under one of the four scenarios<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. Red = likely, blue = unlikely</ins>. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, visual representations of the four scenarios were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, visual representations of the four scenarios were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td></tr>
</table>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6132&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz at 13:13, 28 July 2021
2021-07-28T13:13:51Z
<p></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:13, 28 July 2021</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l82" >Line 82:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== An exemplary study ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== An exemplary study ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:System Thinking - Exemplary Study Hanspach et al. 2014 - Title.png|600px|frameless|center|Title from Hanspach et al. 2014]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|400px|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|400px|thumb|right|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td></tr>
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</table>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6131&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* An exemplary study */
2021-07-28T13:13:33Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">An exemplary study</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<col class="diff-content" />
<tr class="diff-title" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:13, 28 July 2021</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l84" >Line 84:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In their 2014 publication, Hanspach et al. (see References) present - among other methodological approaches - the results of a Scenario Planning process they conducted with stakeholders in Southern Transylvania. Here, they conducted '''stakeholder workshops''' with "(...) all relevant ethnic groups, political parties, churches, and schools, as well as local police officers and organizations concerned with nature conservation, regional development, forestry, agriculture, and tourism." (p.34) First, they held individual workshops with each stakeholder group, in which these were asked to present their "(...) understandings of changes in the regions" for the past and the future "as well as of social-ecological system dynamics and key uncertainties" (p.35). The researchers then used the insights from these workshops to create '''"four plausible storylines''' describing sequences of social, ecological, and economic changes" for a 30-year time horizon (p.36). These scenarios were developed alongside two axes, which each represented endogenous uncertainties (''the ability of the locals to caplitalize on opportunities'') as well as exogenous uncertainties (''national and supranational policy emphasis'').</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">600px</del>|thumb|<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">center</del>|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario axes.png|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">400px</ins>|thumb|<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">right</ins>|'''The scenario matrix with four plausible alternative futures alongside two axes for Southern Transylvania.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>They received feedback to these scenario drafts in a second round of workshops. Then, they used existent data on social-ecological trends in the region and rated how these trends might develop under each scenario. This way, they gathered a better idea of how the region would change under each scenario. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''Some of the scenario maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend would develop under one of the four scenarios. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Maps.png|750px|thumb|center|'''Some of the scenario maps created for Southern Transylvania.''' Each map shows how a specific social-ecological trend would develop under one of the four scenarios. Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.38]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, visual representations of the four scenarios were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Further, visual representations of the four scenarios were created to support imagination of what they would mean for the region.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Drawings.png|750px|thumb|center|'''These drawing visualize Southern Transylvania under each of the four developed scenarios.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Scenario Planning - Exemplary study - Hanspach et al. 2014 - Scenario Drawings.png|750px|thumb|center|'''These drawing visualize Southern Transylvania under each of the four developed scenarios.''' Source: Hanspach et al. 2014, p.37]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Overall, the results of the scenario planning process and the analysis of the scenarios shows how this method can help identify the most important impact factors on future developments of a system and how distinct potential developments influence specific aspects of the system. It also becomes clear how this method can facilitate policy responses and how scenarios are a helpful form of communicating scientific data.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Overall, the results of the scenario planning process and the analysis of the scenarios shows how this method can help identify the most important impact factors on future developments of a system and how distinct potential developments influence specific aspects of the system. It also becomes clear how this method can facilitate policy responses and how scenarios are a helpful form of communicating scientific data.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td></tr>
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Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6130&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz at 13:12, 28 July 2021
2021-07-28T13:12:33Z
<p></p>
<a href="https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6130&oldid=6125">Show changes</a>
Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6125&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* Key Publications */
2021-07-28T11:53:24Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Key Publications</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 11:53, 28 July 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Key Publications ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>Wack, P. 1985. ''Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead.'' Harvard Business Review 63(5). 72-89.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Wack, P. 1985. ''Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead.'' Harvard Business Review 63(5). 72-89.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A first-hand report from inside of Shell's planning process in the 1960s.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </ins>A first-hand report from inside of Shell's planning process in the 1960s.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1995. ''Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking.'' Sloan Management Review 36(2). 25-50.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1995. ''Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking.'' Sloan Management Review 36(2). 25-50.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A detailed description of how to conduct Scenario Planning, explained through case studies in the advertisement industry.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </ins>A detailed description of how to conduct Scenario Planning, explained through case studies in the advertisement industry.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>Amer, M. Daim, T.U. Jetter, A. 2013. ''A review of scenario planning.'' Futures 46. 23-40.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Amer, M. Daim, T.U. Jetter, A. 2013. ''A review of scenario planning.'' Futures 46. 23-40.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A (rather complex) overview on different types of Scenario Planning across the literature.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </ins>A (rather complex) overview on different types of Scenario Planning across the literature.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>Swart, R.J., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. 2004. ''The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis.'' Global Environmental Change 14(2). 137-146.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Swart, R.J., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. 2004. ''The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis.'' Global Environmental Change 14(2). 137-146.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A conceptual paper that elaborates on the potential of scenarios in and for sustainability science.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </ins>A conceptual paper that elaborates on the potential of scenarios in and for sustainability science.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== References ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== References ==</div></td></tr>
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Christopher Franz
https://sustainabilitymethods.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Planning&diff=6124&oldid=prev
Christopher Franz: /* What the method does */
2021-07-28T11:52:11Z
<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">What the method does</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 11:52, 28 July 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Scenario Planning is the systematic development of descriptions of (typically) multiple plausible futures, which are then called "scenarios". These descriptions of plausible futures may be illustrated with quantitative and precise details. However, the focus lies on presenting them "(...) in coherent script-like or narrative fashion." (Schoemaker 1993, p.195). The scenarios developed in a Scenario Planning process are all "fundamentally different" (Schoemaker 1993, p.195) and may be contradictory and irreconcilable, but there is no inherent ranking between them (2). The core idea is not to present the most probable version of the future, but to get an idea about the range of possible developments of system variables and their interactions (2, 5). Scenarios "(...) are not states of nature nor statistical predictions. The focus is not on single-line forecasting nor on fully estimating probability distributions, but rather on bounding and better understanding future uncertainties." (Schoemaker 1993, p.196).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Scenario Planning is the systematic development of descriptions of (typically) multiple plausible futures, which are then called "scenarios". These descriptions of plausible futures may be illustrated with quantitative and precise details. However, the focus lies on presenting them "(...) in coherent script-like or narrative fashion." (Schoemaker 1993, p.195). The scenarios developed in a Scenario Planning process are all "fundamentally different" (Schoemaker 1993, p.195) and may be contradictory and irreconcilable, but there is no inherent ranking between them (2). The core idea is not to present the most probable version of the future, but to get an idea about the range of possible developments of system variables and their interactions (2, 5). Scenarios "(...) are not states of nature nor statistical predictions. The focus is not on single-line forecasting nor on fully estimating probability distributions, but rather on bounding and better understanding future uncertainties." (Schoemaker 1993, p.196).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''There is no ''one'' procedure for Scenario Planning''' (5). A commonly cited approach was by Schoemaker (2, 3) includes the following steps:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''There is no ''one'' procedure for Scenario Planning''' (5). A commonly cited approach was by Schoemaker (2, 3) includes the following steps:<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"><br></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>1) Definition of time frame, scope, decision variables and major actors of the issue in question.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>1) Definition of time frame, scope, decision variables and major actors of the issue in question.</div></td></tr>
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Christopher Franz